The safety floor, visibly
Chance of a covered event in a year, before and after the anchor
A model looking only at financial statements can talk itself into absurd confidence: odds of 1-in-a-million for a spotless balance sheet. The anchor forbids that: nothing scores better than the safest credit grade's real historical base rate. Ordinary and troubled assets are barely moved.
Archetypev1 · raw logisticv2 · cohort-anchored
investment grade0.012 bp2.02 bp
strong0.13 bp5.14 bp
mid1.370%1.359%
stressed99.99%99.98%
near-default99.998%99.996%
The same engine, four assets
What protection costs
Protection on a safe asset costs almost nothing per year. On a troubled one, the annual price explodes, and the expected years of premium collapse, because an asset close to failing won't be paying premiums for long. That is exactly how the professional market behaves, which is the point: the engine reproduces it, checkably.
AssetFair spreadRPV01
investment grade / strong< 1 bp4.63 y
mid75 bp4.47 y
stressed40,832 bp0.15 y
near-default43,856 bp0.14 y